An Unanticipated Change In Monetary Policy Is Likely To Have Implications

An unanticipated change in monetary policy is likely to have implications for the stock markets because an anticipated change would logically be discounted by stock market investors and they are unlikely to affect equity prices at the time they are announced. Governor Ben Bernanke (2003) states that unanticipated changes in monetary policy affect stock prices not so much by influencing expected dividends or the risk-free real interest rate, but rather by affecting the perceived risk associated with stocks. We can understand from this statement that any unanticipated change in monetary policy is likely to increase the risk premium associated with the stock more than the expected dividends. Higher risks always come with higher premiums to compensate for bearing the uncertainty over the expected returns.

For example, a restrictive monetary policy will lead investors to view stocks as riskier investments and thus may demand higher returns to hold stock. In simple words, a restrictive money supply policy through higher interest rates would make stocks to be more risk borne for a given path of expected dividends as higher expected return can be achieved only by a fall in the current stock price. More so, tightening of monetary policy has a particularly strong impact on firms that are highly bank-dependent borrowers as banks reduce their overall supply of credit.
Government policies play an essential role in terms of investor confidence. Consider a situation wherein the government on recommendation by the federal or central banks decides to raise the investment FDI cap for foreign investors by certain margin. Investing firm will look at domestic markets for funding besides their own capital sources to invest. This investor confidence building measures are likely to attract investor to invest their capital by buying shares. But the extent to which such reforms are likely to succeed would depend on the rate at which such capital are available, policies towards repatriation of profits, exchange rate policies, reforms and regulations that allow firms to raise capital from the market.
If the investor expects the likely returns from stocks to be less, it would make more sense for him to look at other financial derivatives and products such as Bonds for investment. Unlike Shares, Bonds are far less risk prone as the returns and period of investment is well established. Bonds come with specific-guaranteed returns and the investment period is decided upon at the time of issuance and purchase.
Risks may come in the form of interest rates charged on raising necessary capital from the market. Talking of risks, if the investor is risk averse, there are possibly only two things that can deter stock markets from operating under market conditions.