How monetary policy can influence stock market
Financial markets are an essential component of an economy. With the virtual disappearance of borders preventing free flow of capital across nations, its implications not only affect a country’s economic growth but also the country’s ability to raise capital to meet its investment requirements.
Financial markets, in this respects, covers the whole range of financial assets, companies and their products. The market participants involved may include those dealing in the derivatives markets, venture capitalists, foreign exchange dealers, hedge funds, investment banks, stock brokers, and financial credit agencies.
Considering this diversified interest groups, it is essential that we have certain control regime to regulate this complex markets. Unlike other sectors such as Service and Manufacturing, the financial markets are essentially more sensitive to market behaviour and trends. Note that this does not in any sense mean that service or manufacturing sector is any less influential than the financial sector on economic growth.
In recent times, we have observed that trends in financial markets in one country can influence the behaviour of these markets elsewhere. This integration and interdependence of the world financial market has brought about increased necessity for interest rate parity to prevent capital from moving frantically from one economy or sector to another. Federal banks in conjunction with their respective governments introduce reforms and regulations to control capital movements in and out of the country. These reforms and regulations are introduced by the federal bank through its monetary policy.
Monetary policy can be defined as an Instruments of Control that a federal bank, in agreement with its respective government policy, use to control (i) price stability, (ii) inflation, (iii) money supply, (iv) exchange rates, (v) unemployment and (vi) Sustainable output. Each of these components highlighted have drastic implications for the short term and long term economic growth rates.
Taking into consideration the main area of this study, we aim to understand how monetary policy can influences stock markets. To do this, we first need to know why capital moves from one sector/economy to another. How does current short term and long term interest rates influence the demand for money? Interest rates are used to control inflationary pressure and to control flow of money into the economy. Excess demand and supply for money in the economy can create inflationary pressures. These inflationary pressures and demand and supply of money are controlled through monetary policy.
Monetary Policy
By applying macroeconomic principles we know that movement of capital takes place to profit from sudden and unexpected changes in market sentiments. Consider a situation wherein there has been a sudden drop in interest rates by the federal bank. A drop in interest rates has positive implications in the sense that borrowers would find it cheaper to raise capital from the market. But why would a private lender lend his capital in an economy when he can profit by lending his capital for higher returns in some other economy ? This may force the lender to take his capital out of the economy to some other profitable destination. Such movement of capital in and out of the economy will put pressure on the exchange rate to change.
By how much does this movement will affect the exchange rate would depend by how much the federal banks lending rates can offset the negative implications of capital transfer by the capital lender. Whether positive or negative, the federal bank would have to devise a strategy to meet the demand for money not only by domestic borrowers and lenders but also by foreign borrowers and lenders.
Expansionary and restrictive monetary policy can both have inflationary pressures. Curbing money supply with higher interest rates would lead many borrowers of capital to transfer these additional costs on to their customers. On the other hand, expansionary monetary policy with lower interest rates would lead to excess spending as disposable income increases. This would cause the prices to increase beyond the sustainable level. In this case, the primary objective of monetary policy is to maintain prices at a sustainable level.
Such economic trends would warrant a monetary policy that can pump and pull money out of circulation, keep the real interest rates level at an optimum level and ensure that the domestic currency’s external value is determined by the market forces of demand and supply.
Stock Markets
Business establishment look at various sources to raise capital to meet its expenditure requirements. They do so by raising capital from the market by selling equity to shareholders. Shareholders invest in anticipation of higher dividends. Firms need to raise capital from the market to meet its short and long term obligations. Suppose that a firm is not able to raise capital at an affordable rate, it would be forced to transfer the additional costs of borrowing on to its customers. Such an action would make its output more expensive in the market and it can have consequences for its profits generation and dividend policies. Less profits and lower dividends can hamper shareholder interests and its equity prices may take a drop.
How does monetary policy work towards bringing stability in the stock market prices ? Stock prices are among the most closely watched asset prices in the economy and are viewed as being highly sensitive to economic conditions. Stock prices have also been known to swing rather widely, leading to concerns about possible “bubbles” or other deviations of stock prices from fundamental values that may have adverse implications for the economy. Taking into considering what stated above, we shall therefore look at the ways monetary policy, given its first objective of maintaining price stability in the economy, influence stock prices. The next chapter looks at some existing literature review on this topic.
Objectives and Methodology
The objective of this study is to first looks at the basics of monetary policy as a macroeconomic stability instrument. There has been considerable debate over the implications of monetary policy over the stock markets. This has largely been due to the uncertainty associated with the stocks and its prices. These uncertainties seem to affect risk premiums added to stock prices more than stock market index and the stock dividends.
Chapter 2 looks at the literature review of existing articles and discussions on the importance of monetary policy for regulating stock markets. These chapter analyses the argument that monetary policies do not necessary have large scale implications for the stock markets. In chapter 3, I look at the need for regulation in the stock market and the factors that contribute in the making of the monetary policy. I have reproduced a chart representation of the US Federal Reserve and the factors that contribute in its monetary policy.
We shall also be looking at the trend pattern in the FTSE 100 stocks with the Bank of England interest rates since 1995/96. In the graphical representation to follow in the chapter 4, I have taken into consideration the statistical historical data pertaining to FTSE 100 stocks, inflation rate and the Bank of England interest rates.
I shall also be looking at the correlation that may exist between the interest rates and inflation rates in the UK. In order to have a better understanding of the relationship I have taken into consideration a 10 year period split into two parts 1996/00 and Jan 04/Oct 05. I have also produced one multiple variable regression model to look for variance in the percentage change in the FTSE 100 index due to the variance in the inflation rate and interest rates.
Tags: capital, economy, FTSE, inflation, interest rates, monetary policy, stock market
